I don't think Roe v Wade will be overturned in the next 25 years. Nor will it be a priority of republican politicians in the coming nominations. That doesn't mean they won't say it's a priority.

But 15 years ago, republicans were out of power in both houses of congress. So energizing the core constituency was the key goal. Thomas and Souter were nominated with the expectation they would create a majority willing to overturn Roe.

Since the recapture of congress in 1994, republicans have expanded their majority. Here in 2005, they have a lot more to lose than they did in 1990. Overturning Roe would be a huge disaster for them. Many of the moderates in their party would instantly turn against them, and democrats might finally be motivated to get off their ass and run a decent presidential campaign.

For now, abortion has turned into the perfect have-it-both-ways issue for the Republican party. They can attract strict conservative voters by outwardly proclaiming their opposition to abortion. But they can keep the moderate conservatives in the fold by quietly ensuring Roe remains good law.

Consequently I don't think it will be a big factor in who gets nominated to the court.

04 Jul 05